Modelling the epidemic

In the current situation (and any comparable state of emergency caused by an epidemic) much hope hinges on the statistical and epidemiological sciences that produce a model of an event like this by means of computational processing. Their scenarios are based on mathematical calculation work similarly to the forecasting of weather or the stock exchange. Probabilities are translated into progress diagrams and – more or less descriptive – scenarios along certain mathematical (or rather: stochastic) parameters, the construction of which includes historical data and assumptions about social behaviour. The visual form these scenarios take can range from a “simple” coordinate network to three-dimensional composite images like the one shown above (from a study on “synthetic populations” for modelling epidemics from the Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory at Virginia Tech). Epidemiology builds its scenarios in a manner not unlike other (e.g. economic, logistical, organizational) contexts: deploying certain theories and methodologies that are subject to constant discussion and renewal in the scientific communities.

Planning and organization studies have made a significant leap in development through big data and AI. Deep learning algorithms are continuously parameterized through the evaluation of social media data. Monitoring social behaviour becomes a prerequisite for modelling the course of infectious diseases and therefore also form the basis for decision-making and justification for the political and policing measures to be adopted. Nevertheless, the success of the algorithmic routines of these models and their predictions are persistently rooted in mathematical formulas, which occasionally take on a quasi-visual form in scientific papers.

A central formula for epidemiological modelling is that of the SEIR progression, in which “susceptible individuals in disease class S enter disease class E on exposure to a pathogen (ie, infected but not yet infectious themselves)” and “individuals in class E then transfer, after a period of latency, into the class of infectious individuals, I, only to transfer to a recovered or removed class R. ”

 

Flow diagrams for the basic SEIVD continuous (A) and discrete (B) time models with transition rates τ, σ, γ and ν from disease classes S to E, E to I, I to V
and V back to S, respectively. (Wayne M. Getz et al, Modeling epidemics: A primer and Numerus Model Builder implementation, Epidemics, 25 [2018])

Skilful visual representations in this scholarly-textual environment give plausible visualisations of development and spread, rates of change of the epidemic (and its increase or decrease) without thereby undermining the mathematical functioning of the formula. This engenders hybrid picture formulas or formula pictures that often seem to suffer the burden of the complexity and abstractness they are expected to carry.

What should be of particular interest to parents, children and teachers alike, are studies on the efficiency of school closings during an epidemic like the present one. A 2015 American study on pandemic influenza concluded: “School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain.”

aus: Isaac Chun-Hai Fung et al., Modeling the Effect of School Closures in a Pandemic Scenario: Exploring Two Different Contact Matrices, Clinical Infectious Diseases 60 (2015)

In order to investigate the reciprocity between school closings and the time of an epidemic’s climax, the research team built “a deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model of influenza transmission” by dividing the population (here: the USA) into four age groups and “contact matrices” were created to model the average number of transferring but not physical contacts. The results were somewhat sobering: “For every week of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, a 1-week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases.” Only when a vaccine is introduced into the equation does the prognosis change for the better: “Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks.”

In the accompanying diagram (see above) a plethora of variants of the scenario has been processed. However, the generated coordinate image is not very meaningful to the inexperienced eye despite its use of various colours – it just seems too even, lacking any dramatic rashes, the waves/curves sloshing as if the surf is fully under control.

In any case, the real situation on an epidemiologist’s desktop will look more like the one in this figure from a paper on data management and decision-making, which was written on the basis of spread simulations: a large number of windows opened at the same time, which – see the principle of the “dashboard” – offers geographic map material, spectral diagrams, text fields etc. and seeks salvation (healing?) in the stratification, the overlap. TH

Sicong Liu et al., epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles, The Journal of Infectious Diseases 214 (2016) (Suppl 4)

 

 

 

March 18th, 2020 — Rosa Mercedes / 02
Interface

Tatsiana Shchurko on the War in Ukraine, Entangled Imperialisms, and Transnational Feminist Solidarity, via LeftEast (May 2, 2022): “[An] uneven knowledge production and the many implications of the war against Ukraine reveal the dire need to develop a feminist anti-capitalist critique of multiple imperialisms. This language should grow from within the occupied and suppressed communities of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. An anti-imperialist and anti-capitalist feminist positionality grasps that the local is part of a global in an effort to build transnational connections of mutual aid and support against state and corporate violence. For example, statements of solidarity with Ukraine expressed by the International Committee of Indigenous Peoples of Russia and Native American communities along with the anti-war feminist march in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) on March 8, 2022, pointing out that the war in Ukraine should be of concern for a broad transnational community, may serve as instrumental examples of alternative anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist solidarities that stretch beyond state regulations and macro-politics and foreground decolonial perspectives, necessary in addressing entanglements of multiple imperialisms. Such solidarities also bring to light hidden interconnections of the past that allowed for distant communities to survive and support each other against the violence of imperialist intervention and its attendant capitalist exploitation. Thus, the march in Bishkek reminds of the socialist roots of the International Women’s Day to call for internationalist, intersectional, class solidarity against imperialism and militarism.”

Vasyl Cherepanyn on that “It’ll take more than tanks to ease Germany’s guilt” (via Politico): “Since the Soviet Union’s collapse, Germany has been imposing neocolonial optics on its Eastern European ‘peripheries,’ and on the post-Soviet space in particular, where Ukraine was long considered a gray buffer zone about which the EU was ‘deeply concerned.’ Germany didn’t bother itself much with differentiating between former Soviet countries’ pasts. Even until recently, any Ukrainian agenda in Germany was often ‘balanced’ with a Russian perspective, so as to not exclude the latter by any means.”

An unnamed anarchist and art scholar, who joined the Territorial Defense Forces, quoted by Olexii Kuchanskyi in an essay on “Digital Leviathan and His Nuclear Tail” (via Your Art and e-flux notes): “At dawn, Dima and I talked about cinema. Dima believes that cinema is inferior to literature as a means of expression because you spend much more time with a book than a film. It’s a really interesting point, something to dig into. I studied at the department of art theory & history and I never thought of it. Dima served in the military after school and worked at the factory all his life. He listens to rap, smokes pot, and tries to have fun. He is thirty-eight, his child was born last year. He likes Wong Kar-wai and is a fan of Asian cinema in general. Dima communicates by quoting Omar Khayyam, Confucius, and other awesome guys.”

April 20th, 2022

Vasyl Cherepanyn (Visual Culture Research Centre, Kyiv) on Putin’s “World War Z” and the West’s deadly “foot-dragging”, via Project Syndicate: “The main feature of this Western condition is constant belatedness. The West has always been too late, incapable of acting ahead and instead just reacting to what has already happened. As a Ukrainian joke went at the time, ‘While the European Union was taking a decision, Russia took Crimea.’ Then as now, Ukrainians wondered, ‘What is the West’s red line? What will compel the West to act instead of waiting and discussing when to intervene?’”

Barbara Wurm on Lithuanian director Mantas Kvedaravičius, killed in Mariupol, via Die Welt: “Kvedaravičius unfolded a whole spectrum of visual anthropology over a decade with only three films [Barzakh, Mariupolis, Parthenon]. It now awaits evaluation and exploration. The time will come. The films themselves make possible an infinite immersion in the matter of the world, between dream and reality, horror and everyday life, facts and phenomenal imagology.”

April 5th, 2022

Statement by #AfricansFromUA on Equal Treatment via e-flux notes: “Non-Ukrainian nationals from the war in Ukraine arriving in Germany have been facing very different terms of treatment—both in different federal states and cities but also within the very same city throughout time and different facilities. While some received so called ‘Fictitious Certificates’ for one year without further procedures others were pressured to submit an asylum application with their finger prints registered and passports seized. Again others were given a so called “Duldung” including the threat of deportation.”

April 5th, 2022
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